The state should take urgent measures in order to avoid its own grim expectations about labour market development. This is what an analysis on labour market development by 2020 conducted by the Ministry of Labour and Social Policy arrives at. It uses official statistics, demographic and macroeconomic prognoses.  

Following Spain's example

In eight years time Bulgaria will be in the same boat with present-day Spain, unless drastic economic turns are taken, emigration increases and government employment measures take effect. Spanish unemployment rate has already exceeded 22% and is expected to go beyond 23% by the end of this year.  

For the time being Bulgaria seems far from such a grave labour market crisis. The officially registered unemployment of 10% in 2011 places the country two points above the average European Union level. If MLSP experts turn out to be right however, the job hunters in 2020 will be twice as many as the registered 342 422 in 2011.

Demand and supply ratio

MLSP forecasts contradict a number of current popular prognoses that there will be no one who can work before long. In 2020 business will no longer be able to provide employment to 660 000 people - 400 000 high school graduated will become redundant, 200 000 university diploma holders and 60 000 primary school graduated, it is claimed.

The demand and supply gap is smallest among undereducated people, for their number will tend to drop faster than others. The percentage is expected to have shrunk by 40% in comparison with 2000 by the end of this decade.

Even greater dip is expected in employment of people without any education. The employment shall drop in agriculture, forestry and fishery (almost twice), extraction and manufacturing industries.

On the other hand, employment in commerce, repair works, transport, hotels and restaurants will increase by about 50%. Rise is expected also in IT and communications, research and development, administrative and ancillary trade. Employment in the financial and insurance sectors will remain stable with chances to increase.

The demand for service sector personnel is expected to be greatest, less for analytical experts and administrative staff.

Invest smartly - in education  

In eight years time Bulgaria will be hiring brains rather than hands. Barely 15% of the population will perform activities which do not require special qualification. The number of craftsmen and machine operators or manual labour workers, will drop drastically.  

The future lies with brain work. Skilled workers and highly skilled workers will get better career prospects.

These forecasts about employment by 2020 come as a result of a pilot project which the Ministry of Labour and Social Policy will use for developing a sustainable model for anticipating specific labour market demands. The system is supposed to be ready by October 2013.

It will include annual surveys on the business' need of specific experts. However, it is not clear yet how probable this information will be, given the economic situation. The latter is so unstable and dynamic that employers refrain from planning recruitment for a period of a year, let alone a longer one.

Otherwise, there is no doubt that the presence of objective forecasts about the employment development will benefit everyone. "If we have a mid- and long term information about the business' demands, we will be able to plan more successfully our vocational training and lifelong learning programmes", Deputy Minister of Labour and Social Policy, Deyana Kostadinova, explained. 

We intend to use this information in the long run as a starting point for planning educational system reforms. We will be able to adapt the educational pathways in the secondary and tertiary education so as to provide experts to the sectors which are in greatest demand on the market," added Mrs. Kostadinova. 

People who would like to plan their education and career development will also benefit from the system. A so-called online National Qualification Portal is expected to start operating next year. This will be a website which offers information about the business' expectations concerning labour market. The ultimate objective is to bridge the gap between employers' needs and job hunters skills.

Job places on decrease

Over half the companies in Bulgaria closed job places in 2011, while only 6% hired.

This is the result of the annual survey of the Bulgarian Industrial Association (BIA) among its members. Five hundred managers of companies from various economic sectors took part in the traditional survey.

Along with the job places cuts, skilled workers are still on the demand, the association reports. Almost half of the survey participants are looking for highly skilled workers. There is still a great demand for all sorts of engineers - construction, electrical, machinery etc. No one ever needs unskilled workers.

Plamen Vushev, manager of the online employment portal jobs.bg, has said recently that IT and outsourcing experts will be needed in 2012. He recalled also what the Ministry of Economy, Energy and Tourism announced, namely, that a new outsourcing company is to enter the Bulgarian market in 2012. It is expected to provide employment to at least 200-300 people in the first year and to reach 1000 employees in the years to come. Vushev maintains that call centers will need people who speak Scandinavian languages in the future. 

In BIA's survey employers most often complain about the lack of vocational skills and knowledge, as well as technological and organizational discipline. Technical and technological competences, innovation, and foreign languages are also short. Nevertheless, Plamen Vushev highlights another labour market tendency, namely that education and skills are no longer as important as adaptability and willingness to change.  

Companies' intentions for 2012 are extremely cautious. Most of them would not embark on any changes, including in relation to remuneration and jobs. It is barely 18% of them who intend to invest in personnel training. Business is generally on the alert and takes precautions in case situation worsens, BIA explains.